In the Chinese economy, "the garlic you vicious," "beans you play", the international liquidity crisis has tended.
The Chinese economy is real estate related, bound by international liquidity in U.S. dollars. A sign of trouble, investors will find a warm haven dollar.
Investors worried about the prospects for the euro to the dollar now united under command. According to the British "Financial Times" reported on May 26, the price of the option's current cost of the dollar euro exchange rate have been rising since December 2008 at the highest level of the euro exchange rate in U.S. dollarsUnited, investors must pay more than the London Interbank Offered Rate interest rate (Libor) prime, this is the first time since late 2008, thus increasing pressure on the market.
Jittery global financial crisis when the United States wanted by the enthusiasm, U. S. Treasury yields reached a new low. September 2008 Lehman Brothers (Lehman Brothers) goes bust, the highest cost of the euro against the dollar.
China has been infected, the bank began to hide debt in the asylum, one year interest rates of bonds low. It is reported that from May 20, the group of five lines in the capital market, the interest rate rises in successive days in recent months range. With the U.S. dollar has increased, and the expected appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar has declined significantly. Manufacturing capacity, while the volume of monetary or exchange, are in a downward trajectory.
Not only the official market rates, private loans have risen sharply. Central Branch of People's Bank of Wenzhou private monitoring data show that: 1-February on the local private loan interest rates ranged between 6 ‰ -30 ‰, the weighted average monthly interest of 10.99 ‰, but the investigation of civil society stronger annual rate of interest of 96% by wear so crazy that some private companies have suffered from the thirst for capital, to evil than good. Wenzhou local capacity for private loans has reached 56 billion yuan, and local private capital investment to become the main channel.
In some data products, price increases, there is no doubt the global monetary tightening. At this point, the Chinese should not have recourse to RMB credit bubble in 2009, "save the United States" trick, make China a distribution of bubbles.
In the domestic market, our country has no room for another shot. Participation in 2009 the number of days credit cycle of inflation in China has not yet completed, it springs from the prices of some agricultural products, high-end market, high fever of capital investment, Housing prices remain strong due to the elimination can be seen. Mess with China's internal, it is necessary to consider the platform for investment and funding for local production of non-performing loans, but also the face of rising prices of agricultural products but also to pay the excess capacity cost hundreds of billions appear.
Repeat of 2009 if the government bailout of a gesture, relax bank credit, you can imagine, the prices go up to heaven, garlic rose to 10 times the price doubled again, you can imagine what kind of economic experience of the situation there?China to increase the minimum wage, establishing a social security system, Shandong, Jiangsu, Zhejiang and seven other drivers pre-established benefits, minimum wage, the price level of basic pension and the mechanism dynamic adjustment related to the interaction and the ability to eliminate backward production, which increases in the current huge inflationary pressures, could not bear the consequences of relaxed credit.
Europe does not need to save China, China does not act like a thankless task, without being utilized.
Depression in the United States that the collection of funds, whether corporate bonds or government bonds, are active, there is no time for freezing the funds of the financial crisis. More generally, the United States is a substantial reduction in the size of the TARP. The Fed's balance sheet is more and more beautiful.Obama had predicted total of 7,000 billion Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) will cost taxpayers $ 341 billion U.S., but now it says can cut 200 billion dollars U.S.. U.S. companies do not need 750 billion bailout of scale. scale with successive United States, May 11, the U.S. Senate approved the first lower limit of TARP funds, 21 May, the U. S. Treasury Department said that the financial sectors and to improve the automotive business, which has $ 700 billion of the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) loss expected to reduce from 11.4 to 105.4 billion. If the U.S. asset prices continued to rise, the U.S. Treasury and taxpayers do not pay, but may also invest from 2008 to get great benefits.
Although there is no chance in Europe, the United States were engaged in the debt crisis of European and bruised. This is the flip side, the other side of the coin is the real economy improvement. Take advantage of booming exports and to lift the construction industry, the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW), said the German economy recovered strongly in Q2 Q2 of this year, the German gross domestic product expected "strong growth of 0.7%." Why China wants to replace the heart of the position of euro area countries, Germany and France, to act as white knight countries of southern Europe?
The real world economy recovery. May 26 Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development report published in the semiannual economic outlook, said in 2010 and 2011 world economic growth will reach 4.6% and 4.5%, higher than the previous estimate of 3.4% and 3.7% level. Among them, the OECD countries in 2010 and 2011 economic growth forecast of 2.7% and 2.8%, higher than the previous estimate of 1.9% and 2.5%.
The tightening of the world's second currency, to stimulate the process of policy all the inevitable small after the bursting of the bubble is too loose monetary policy in the past, the European high-capacity beyond the well- be their own punishment.Its nature is benign, and when the global financial crisis is very different.
Although China's international responsibility to bear, but in the means and ability range, but also the moral requirements of the range. The Fed's balance sheet is more beautiful, and the quality of the commitments of the Bank of China is worsening because of the financial crisis, it is depressing.
Note: The despair of the future for all people jumping pray. Hopefully next life they do not live like animals, like the military, and like normal people.
Blocking, continue to block, what is good?
The first three decades of industry model, to come to an end, and must be a major reform. Do we hear the voices of reform?
Evening classes at the University Jinan, one student asked to jump, ask Toyota to strike. The first reaction is that hundreds of classmates in the psychological life of prayer for the dead.
Whatever the social status, life eternal, natural forever.
Weekend, the beach, had a quiet weekend. 2011-6-6
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